Notice the differences in orientation, shape, and size in the area of maximum moisture when comparing the AVN, Eta, and AMSU forecast/analysis TPW fields. These differences may be indicative of how well the models initialize the field at 00 and 12 Z on 1 February and 00 Z on 2 February. In subsequent periods, differences between model forecasts and satellite analyses may indicate a divergence of the forecast from actual conditions.

Notice the southwest-to-northeast orientation of the moisture plume in the AMSU TPW at 06 Z on 2 February. This is in contrast to the Eta model which shows more of an east-to-west orientation to the moisture plume. The AMSU TPW fields also show the moisture plume to be thinner and located farther south than what the AVN and Eta models show.