During the mid-morning hours on 25 September 1998, Hurricane Georges passed directly over the Florida Keys with estimated maximum winds of 105 mph and heavy rains. Here we examine the rainfall potential or TRaP product generated several hours before Georges struck the Florida Keys using a 00:45 Z NOAA-15 pass over the hurricane.(Click here to see a TRaP calculation description.)

A 6.72-inch rainfall potential (TRaP) was computed using AMSU-derived rain rates and a storm motion of 12 knots. The observed rainfall in Key West was 8.38 inches. While the AMSU derived rainfall potential was somewhat lower than observed, forecasters could still have used the TRaP information to predict substantial rainfall totals over the Florida Keys.